As the third day of U.S. and Israeli strikes began, Iran’s close allies, Russia and China, have only moderately reacted with criticism. This shows how limited Iran’s “strategic partnerships” with Moscow and Beijing really are.
Russia and China have both spoken out against the U.S.-led strikes, but they have not promised to help Iran in any way, military or civilian.
During a phone call with his Russian colleague on Sunday, Wang Yi, the foreign minister of China, spoke out against the attacks that killed Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. According to him, it was “unacceptable for the U.S. and Israel to attack Iran, let alone kill the leader of a sovereign country and try to change the government.”
While Russia is still invading Ukraine, its foreign ministry said in a statement that the “acts of aggression” were against international law and the basic principles of the UN Charter and were “destabilising the situation across the entire region.”
The two leaders said again that there should be an instant end to the fighting and a return to diplomatic talks to solve problems. On Sunday, Trump warned that the U.S. combat operation in Iran would continue until all objectives are achieved, possibly stretching into the next four weeks.
“Iran has no real friend.”
Gabriel Wildau, managing director specialising in China at the consulting firm Teneo, said that China’s formal statement was “strongly condemnatory,” but that he didn’t see the government of China doing anything concrete to help Iran.
“Maintaining calm with the U.S. remains a top priority for China’s leaders,” Wildau said, adding that he thought the planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping would happen later this month.
During their last phone call on February 4, Trump and Xi talked about many things, including Iran. They are likely to meet when Trump goes to China.
“Beijing may try to get concessions on issues that are more directly important to it, like Taiwan and trade, in exchange for its much weaker rhetoric against Iran,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a fellow at Chatham House, a policy think tank in London.
On Monday, Niutanqin, a social media account with ties to Chinese state media that is often seen as a Beijing mouthpiece, wrote that “Iran has no real ally” and that even closer countries will put their own interests ahead of helping Tehran get out of the crisis.
It is not new for China to take a cautious approach when supporting Iran military.
A British think tank called Chatham House says that while Beijing spoke out against the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran last year, it did not directly help Tehran.
The London-based policy center says that China also backed economic sanctions against Tehran that were led by the UN before the 2015 nuclear deal. Since then, China has been slowly putting money into the Iranian economy.
After the U.S. took Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, hostage on January 3, Beijing spoke out against the “blatant use of force” and told Washington to “stop violating other countries’ sovereignty.” But it didn’t do much more than say these bad things.
“A strategic partnership with Beijing falls far short of a military alliance — or even a guarantee of military support” in the face of “an existential threat from U.S. aggression,” according to Wildau. This is shown by how China has responded to U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran.
It waits and watches.
In the Middle East over the past few years, Moscow has had a lot of important military, economic, and trade ties with Tehran. Iran has become an important source of military drones and weapons for Russia since it invaded Ukraine in full in 2022.
If Iran’s government falls, it will be the second regional friend that Russia has lost since Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in December 2024. Russia will be afraid of losing another foothold in the Middle East.
Even though Russia’s foreign office spoke out against the attacks on Iran, neither the Kremlin nor President Vladimir Putin have talked about the situation in public. CNBC has asked the Kremlin for a response.
According to Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, years of war in Ukraine have made it harder for Russia to project power beyond its limits. Moscow will have even less power in the Middle East because its military is already overworked and its economy is constantly being hit by Western sanctions, he said.
Russia will be very interested in the price of oil because selling its gas to China and India helps pay for its war machine. People in the market worried that the war in Iran could cause a major disruption in the world’s oil supply, which caused oil prices to rise more than 8% on Sunday evening.
Several OPEC+ countries, including Russia, said on Sunday that they would boost production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. This is to make up for any possible gap. Even so, a higher price for oil is good for Russia.
Ellen Wald, head of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC on Monday, “Putin has to be thrilled because anything that makes oil more expensive is good for him.” “He can say, ‘Hey, we have a great supply of oil if you can’t get it from the Gulf.'”
It doesn’t look like talks between Russia and Ukraine to end their four-year war have made much progress in the past few weeks.
“I think [Putin] is very happy with how things are going, but once they’re over, Trump will definitely be looking at Putin next,” Wald said.
Iran is about to fall.
Russia usually does nothing when it comes to world events that don’t directly affect its own interests. When there were riots in Iran at the end of December, Russia did not step in to help. At this point, Russia could just sit back and wait to see if the regime can handle the military threats from the US and Israel.
Professor Michael McFaul at Stanford and former U.S. ambassador to Russia said that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes alone might not be enough to change the government.
“In the past, air campaigns have not brought down governments.” “I cannot think of a single case where it worked. Even military interventions with boots on the ground fail most of the time,” he told CNBC.
“Right now we’re dropping bombs on military targets that are weapon systems aimed at us, our allies, and our partners. We’re not going after the military tools and weapons that are used to oppress the Iranian people.”
“So far, it’s not clear how this military campaign will lead to the change in government that President Trump promised the people of Iran,” he said.
