According to Bloomberg News, U.S. derivatives regulators are looking into a few odd oil futures transactions that occurred only minutes before President Donald Trump made an unexpected declaration indicating a halt to assaults on Iran.
According to persons familiar with the subject, Bloomberg reported that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is leading the inquiry, which is examining activities on trading venues operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange. Relevant records have been requested from both exchanges.
Over the course of around two weeks, regulators are focusing on at least two instances where trade volumes increased dramatically right before important announcements. According to the people, the material sought includes so-called Tag 50 identifiers that can be used to identify the trader.
ICE and the CFTC declined to comment.
CME stated that any inquiry should also examine new platforms, such as participants like prediction markets, although it did not specifically address the anomalous trades connected to Trump’s statement.
“Market integrity is the most important thing,” a CME representative told CNBC. “To monitor trading activity, we closely collaborate with the CFTC and actively monitor our marketplaces. Crucially, all venues—including prediction marketplaces like Polymarket and Kalshi, which feature similar products with little to no visibility—must be included in any analysis of market activity.
When S&P 500 e-mini futures and West Texas Intermediate May crude futures experienced an abrupt and isolated spike in volume during normally quiet premarket trading on March 23, CNBC previously reported on the unusual activity.
About fifteen minutes later, Trump said on Truth Social that he was stopping planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants after discussions between the United States and Iran. WTI crude oil futures fell over 6% and S&P 500 futures surged more than 2.5% ahead of the open as a result of the announcement.
Traders were taken aback by the abrupt, simultaneous jumps in oil futures and stock index volume, especially since there was no obvious trigger or news at the time.
Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., urged the CFTC to launch investigations into these strange transactions last week, posing the question of whether significant nonpublic government information has been repeatedly misappropriated.
